Market stratergy for 17 Jan 2010.

Nifty (5654) is clearly in downtrend, and has closed below 5690.Nifty has fallen by 542 points in last 10 days, and was unable to cross 38.2 % of retracement.
As I have already mentioned in by 13Jan post on niftyfutureandoption.blogspot.com/2011/01/market-analysis-and-trading-stratergy.html and nseguide.com, the market is week and you should short nifty keeping a sl of 5882 for a target of 5600, the market unfolded in the expected way. 
5600 call saw a huge writing with open interest raise by 457 % and price falling by 40 %.Max put build by is seen at 5600 with 88 L contacts in open interest.
200 sma is 5605, and market is expected a support from 5600.
Nifty is expected to bounce at least by 20% to 38.2% of the fall, i.e 5747 to 5846 in comming week.This time should be utilized to liquidate long position and create fresh short for a target of 5500-5350 in comming month.
I will personally short nifty on every rise, keeping a stoploss of 5882.

Stratergy only for monday is based on bounce back, as the market is clearly oversold and huge call writing has been seen, can expect a short covering.
1. Buy 5700 call for a target of 100+, SL 5595 nifty spot.
2. Buy Nifty future at current level, sell 5800 call and buy 5600 put. Book profit in the zone of 5750-5800.


Market Analysis and Trading Stratergy for 14-JAN-2010

Nifty (5751) is able to give close above crucial level of 5750. The short term trend is negative, the index is still trading below 21/50/100 (5977/5995/5947) days moving average. Nifty is expected to touch 200 sma i.e 5604.

Option data clearly indidates a range of 5600-6000 till expiry, call writing is being seen everywhere, even 5600 calls are getting writen off. 5600 Put accumulation is being seen, which makes a downside target of 5600.

On 12 Jan Nifty high 5874 was unable to cross 5882 i.e 38.2 % retracement of the current fall, this clearly indicates market is week.

Trading Stratergy
Sell on every rise till 5882 is crossed decisively.
I have got three trading stratergy based on your aptitude.
1. Buy 5800 put around 65-75, for a target of 105-110 or higher.
2. Sell 5800 call around 80-90, for a target of 50-60, SL 5882 nifty spot.
3. Sell 5700 call and put for 133 & 76, total preminum 209, total preminum earn 10,450 Rs. LBP 5491, UBP 5909, SL 5600 on lower side and 5882 on higher side, the VIX is at 23.15 %, which is going to cool down in coming days, target for 1 week 120.

Thanks and Regards
Subhag Ghosh

Nifty Analysis of 21-Dec-10 and trading stratergy for 22 Dec.

Nifty (6001) ‘the market is now typically sideways’ and the market has traded sideways with a positive bias.Technically the positive bias continues and the market also is in a sideways mode.

The crucial support on the downside for the Nifty is 5950 and resistance at 6050-6125

50 % retracement of the fall from 6338 to 5960 i.e 6014 is first target, 2nd target is 6090.

6000 call has got Max OI at 77 L saws call writers covering the calls, which opens upside move of the market beyond 6000.Only 6100 call saw long build up with addition of 13 L contacts.Which suggest next market target is 61.8 % retracement i.e 6090.

5800 put has got Max OI 86 L, interestingly hude put writing was seen at 6100 put, which clearly incdicates the market is moving UP.

The chart shows clear breakout of the channel, i.e trendline joining 6388 and 6069.

The amount of time nifty has spend today in 5980-6000 zone, shows it will act as strong support in comming days.

Nifty Range: 5900-6100, support 5950, resistence 6050/ 6090.

Trading stratergy.

1. Buy 1 6000 call and sell 2 6100 call, total cost 17 Rs, max 100 Rs. profit if Nifty expires at 6100, max loss 17 Rs. If nifty expires below 6000.
Book profit when nifty comes in 6070 and 6090 zone.

Tips. Avoid shorting in Nifty, as shorts are badely trapped, and any dip will bring short covering, better to buy in dips, as upside momentum is peaking UP.

Thanks and Regards,
Subhag Ghosh

Nifty Analysis of 20 Dec 2010

Nifty (5947), the market looks sideways bit is good for trading,the market is now typically sideways.
The crucial support on the downside for the Nifty is 5900 and resistance at 5995-6050.

6000 Call has got Max OI at 78 L adding 6 L contracts, shows shorting/ call writeing, 6000 will act as strong resistence.

5800 Put has got Max OI at 86 L adding 3 L contacts.Max addition of 9 L contacts was at 5900 put, showing strong buildups.5900 will act as strong support.

Nifty range: 5800-6000, till expiry.

If market remains positive in comming days then the targets are 6014/6090.

Trading stratergy,

1. Sell 5900 put at 52 and 6000 call at 56; total preminum 108.

LBP: 5792, HBP: 6108, the stratergy is max profitable, if nifty expires at 5900-6000 range. SL 5800 on lowe side and 6100 on higer side.

2. Buy 5900 call at 110 and sell 6000 call at 52.As 6000 hold max oi, nifty is expected to expire at 6000 level.

Thanks and Regards,
Subhag Ghosh

Market Analysis of 15-Dec-2010 and stratergy for 16-Dec-2010

Market Analysis of 15-Dec-2010 and stratergy for 16-Dec-2010

Nifty at 5992 looks little bit weak. Nifty did violated 5880 on intraday basis but manages to close above it.Upside 5940-5960 is a tough resistence zone.

Market today has taken a u turn from 5942, i.e 38.2 % retracement of 6338/5690 and 61.8 % retracement of 6069/5721 and breached 5895 ( 50% retracement of 6060/5721), next target is 5853.If 5850 is breached then prevoius low can be touched.

6000 call has got max OI at 82 Lakhs and 5700 put has got max OI at 81 Lakhs.Unwindeing is seen at 5900; 5800 put which indicates downside support is getting weak.

Option Analysis Nifty range 5700-6000 with negative bias.

Chart formation is showing bearish evening star candle pattern, which is negative.

Stratergy for 16-Dec-10

1. Sell nifty SL 5960, T - 5853/5800/lower

2.Sell nifty 5900 call, keeping SL of 5970 nifty spot.Carry the position on weekend and close the position Monday.

Thanks and Regards
Subhag Ghosh

http://niftyfutureandoption.blogspot.com

Market analysis of 14-Dec-2010 and stratergy for 15-Dec-2010

Nifty (5944) ‘technically so far the market is up as long as 5800 holds’ the market unfolded as expected and saw the high right on our resistance of 5955 and has closed in the green…so far the up move seems to be on but I would be cautious too as the market is in a sideways zone with an up bias

Max OI is at 6000 call and 5700 put, nifty to cross 6000 will be difficult, look at 6000 call preminum has not increased inspite nifty has moved 36 points.

Nifty range 5800 - 6000.

If nifty closes above 6050 on closing basis will create a channel breakout which logical target will be 6338.

Resistence: 5955/5995
Support: 5930/ 5888

Stratergy
1. Long - Buy Nifty futue above 5950 SL 5950, Target 6000.
2. Short - Sell nifty below 6014, SL 6020, Target 5950.

Thanks and Regards
Subhag Ghosh

Market Analysis for 13-Dec-10 and stratergy for 14-Dec-10

Market Analysis for 13-Dec-10 and stratergy for 14-Dec-10


Nifty at 5907,Technically the market has generated a trend reversal pattern and so we could see an up move as long as the market manages to stay above 5760 levels. Resistence seen at 5955/5995; with 5850/5800 strong support.

6000 Call has seen long buildup with Max OI at 79 Lakhs contacts, which caps market upside to 6000.

Shorting is been seen at 5700 and 5800 Put with 78 & 72 Lakhs OI.Downside is capped to 5800 to 5700.

Market Range : 5700-6000.

38.2% of fall from 6338 to 5690 is comming around 5937, and 21 sma is comming at 5928.

Nifty to face tough resistence at 5930-5960 range.

Market stratergy for Tue 14 Dec 10

Sell 5800 PE and 6100 CE, total premium earned 60+38=98, this stratergy is safe upto

5702 on downside and 6198 on upside, and is profitable in this range.

As the market is likely to consolidate and settle down in this range, as volality will decrease, preminum will fall drastically.


Thanks and Regards
Subhag Ghosh