Nifty (6001) ‘the market is now typically sideways’ and the market has traded sideways with a positive bias.Technically the positive bias continues and the market also is in a sideways mode.
The crucial support on the downside for the Nifty is 5950 and resistance at 6050-6125
50 % retracement of the fall from 6338 to 5960 i.e 6014 is first target, 2nd target is 6090.
6000 call has got Max OI at 77 L saws call writers covering the calls, which opens upside move of the market beyond 6000.Only 6100 call saw long build up with addition of 13 L contacts.Which suggest next market target is 61.8 % retracement i.e 6090.
5800 put has got Max OI 86 L, interestingly hude put writing was seen at 6100 put, which clearly incdicates the market is moving UP.
The chart shows clear breakout of the channel, i.e trendline joining 6388 and 6069.
The amount of time nifty has spend today in 5980-6000 zone, shows it will act as strong support in comming days.
Nifty Range: 5900-6100, support 5950, resistence 6050/ 6090.
Trading stratergy.
1. Buy 1 6000 call and sell 2 6100 call, total cost 17 Rs, max 100 Rs. profit if Nifty expires at 6100, max loss 17 Rs. If nifty expires below 6000.
Book profit when nifty comes in 6070 and 6090 zone.
Tips. Avoid shorting in Nifty, as shorts are badely trapped, and any dip will bring short covering, better to buy in dips, as upside momentum is peaking UP.
Thanks and Regards,
Subhag Ghosh
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Monday, December 20, 2010
Nifty Analysis of 20 Dec 2010
Nifty (5947), the market looks sideways bit is good for trading,the market is now typically sideways.
The crucial support on the downside for the Nifty is 5900 and resistance at 5995-6050.
6000 Call has got Max OI at 78 L adding 6 L contracts, shows shorting/ call writeing, 6000 will act as strong resistence.
5800 Put has got Max OI at 86 L adding 3 L contacts.Max addition of 9 L contacts was at 5900 put, showing strong buildups.5900 will act as strong support.
Nifty range: 5800-6000, till expiry.
If market remains positive in comming days then the targets are 6014/6090.
Trading stratergy,
1. Sell 5900 put at 52 and 6000 call at 56; total preminum 108.
LBP: 5792, HBP: 6108, the stratergy is max profitable, if nifty expires at 5900-6000 range. SL 5800 on lowe side and 6100 on higer side.
2. Buy 5900 call at 110 and sell 6000 call at 52.As 6000 hold max oi, nifty is expected to expire at 6000 level.
Thanks and Regards,
Subhag Ghosh
The crucial support on the downside for the Nifty is 5900 and resistance at 5995-6050.
6000 Call has got Max OI at 78 L adding 6 L contracts, shows shorting/ call writeing, 6000 will act as strong resistence.
5800 Put has got Max OI at 86 L adding 3 L contacts.Max addition of 9 L contacts was at 5900 put, showing strong buildups.5900 will act as strong support.
Nifty range: 5800-6000, till expiry.
If market remains positive in comming days then the targets are 6014/6090.
Trading stratergy,
1. Sell 5900 put at 52 and 6000 call at 56; total preminum 108.
LBP: 5792, HBP: 6108, the stratergy is max profitable, if nifty expires at 5900-6000 range. SL 5800 on lowe side and 6100 on higer side.
2. Buy 5900 call at 110 and sell 6000 call at 52.As 6000 hold max oi, nifty is expected to expire at 6000 level.
Thanks and Regards,
Subhag Ghosh
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Market Analysis of 15-Dec-2010 and stratergy for 16-Dec-2010
Market Analysis of 15-Dec-2010 and stratergy for 16-Dec-2010
Nifty at 5992 looks little bit weak. Nifty did violated 5880 on intraday basis but manages to close above it.Upside 5940-5960 is a tough resistence zone.
Market today has taken a u turn from 5942, i.e 38.2 % retracement of 6338/5690 and 61.8 % retracement of 6069/5721 and breached 5895 ( 50% retracement of 6060/5721), next target is 5853.If 5850 is breached then prevoius low can be touched.
6000 call has got max OI at 82 Lakhs and 5700 put has got max OI at 81 Lakhs.Unwindeing is seen at 5900; 5800 put which indicates downside support is getting weak.
Option Analysis Nifty range 5700-6000 with negative bias.
Chart formation is showing bearish evening star candle pattern, which is negative.
Stratergy for 16-Dec-10
1. Sell nifty SL 5960, T - 5853/5800/lower
2.Sell nifty 5900 call, keeping SL of 5970 nifty spot.Carry the position on weekend and close the position Monday.
Thanks and Regards
Subhag Ghosh
http://niftyfutureandoption.blogspot.com
Nifty at 5992 looks little bit weak. Nifty did violated 5880 on intraday basis but manages to close above it.Upside 5940-5960 is a tough resistence zone.
Market today has taken a u turn from 5942, i.e 38.2 % retracement of 6338/5690 and 61.8 % retracement of 6069/5721 and breached 5895 ( 50% retracement of 6060/5721), next target is 5853.If 5850 is breached then prevoius low can be touched.
6000 call has got max OI at 82 Lakhs and 5700 put has got max OI at 81 Lakhs.Unwindeing is seen at 5900; 5800 put which indicates downside support is getting weak.
Option Analysis Nifty range 5700-6000 with negative bias.
Chart formation is showing bearish evening star candle pattern, which is negative.
Stratergy for 16-Dec-10
1. Sell nifty SL 5960, T - 5853/5800/lower
2.Sell nifty 5900 call, keeping SL of 5970 nifty spot.Carry the position on weekend and close the position Monday.
Thanks and Regards
Subhag Ghosh
http://niftyfutureandoption.blogspot.com
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Market analysis of 14-Dec-2010 and stratergy for 15-Dec-2010
Nifty (5944) ‘technically so far the market is up as long as 5800 holds’ the market unfolded as expected and saw the high right on our resistance of 5955 and has closed in the green…so far the up move seems to be on but I would be cautious too as the market is in a sideways zone with an up bias
Max OI is at 6000 call and 5700 put, nifty to cross 6000 will be difficult, look at 6000 call preminum has not increased inspite nifty has moved 36 points.
Nifty range 5800 - 6000.
If nifty closes above 6050 on closing basis will create a channel breakout which logical target will be 6338.
Resistence: 5955/5995
Support: 5930/ 5888
Stratergy
1. Long - Buy Nifty futue above 5950 SL 5950, Target 6000.
2. Short - Sell nifty below 6014, SL 6020, Target 5950.
Thanks and Regards
Subhag Ghosh
Max OI is at 6000 call and 5700 put, nifty to cross 6000 will be difficult, look at 6000 call preminum has not increased inspite nifty has moved 36 points.
Nifty range 5800 - 6000.
If nifty closes above 6050 on closing basis will create a channel breakout which logical target will be 6338.
Resistence: 5955/5995
Support: 5930/ 5888
Stratergy
1. Long - Buy Nifty futue above 5950 SL 5950, Target 6000.
2. Short - Sell nifty below 6014, SL 6020, Target 5950.
Thanks and Regards
Subhag Ghosh
Monday, December 13, 2010
Market Analysis for 13-Dec-10 and stratergy for 14-Dec-10
Market Analysis for 13-Dec-10 and stratergy for 14-Dec-10
Nifty at 5907,Technically the market has generated a trend reversal pattern and so we could see an up move as long as the market manages to stay above 5760 levels. Resistence seen at 5955/5995; with 5850/5800 strong support.
6000 Call has seen long buildup with Max OI at 79 Lakhs contacts, which caps market upside to 6000.
Shorting is been seen at 5700 and 5800 Put with 78 & 72 Lakhs OI.Downside is capped to 5800 to 5700.
Market Range : 5700-6000.
38.2% of fall from 6338 to 5690 is comming around 5937, and 21 sma is comming at 5928.
Nifty to face tough resistence at 5930-5960 range.
Market stratergy for Tue 14 Dec 10
Sell 5800 PE and 6100 CE, total premium earned 60+38=98, this stratergy is safe upto
5702 on downside and 6198 on upside, and is profitable in this range.
As the market is likely to consolidate and settle down in this range, as volality will decrease, preminum will fall drastically.
Thanks and Regards
Subhag Ghosh
Nifty at 5907,Technically the market has generated a trend reversal pattern and so we could see an up move as long as the market manages to stay above 5760 levels. Resistence seen at 5955/5995; with 5850/5800 strong support.
6000 Call has seen long buildup with Max OI at 79 Lakhs contacts, which caps market upside to 6000.
Shorting is been seen at 5700 and 5800 Put with 78 & 72 Lakhs OI.Downside is capped to 5800 to 5700.
Market Range : 5700-6000.
38.2% of fall from 6338 to 5690 is comming around 5937, and 21 sma is comming at 5928.
Nifty to face tough resistence at 5930-5960 range.
Market stratergy for Tue 14 Dec 10
Sell 5800 PE and 6100 CE, total premium earned 60+38=98, this stratergy is safe upto
5702 on downside and 6198 on upside, and is profitable in this range.
As the market is likely to consolidate and settle down in this range, as volality will decrease, preminum will fall drastically.
Thanks and Regards
Subhag Ghosh
Sunday, December 12, 2010
Nifty Analysis for 13 Dec 2010
Market stratergy for 12-Dec-2010
6000 Call has got max OI at 76 lakhs contacts, but 21 Lakhs contacts has been closed on friday,s session, i.e OI reduced by 25 %, which is paving the way for upward movement.
5700 Put has got max OI with 77 lakhs contacts, which suggests market has got good support at 5700.
The candlestick pattern is piercing line, which has bullish implication.
21 sma is comming around 5942 and 50 sma is comming around 6052.
38.2 % retracement of the fall from 6338 (5-Nov-10) to 5690 (26-Nov-10) is comming around 5940.
5950 will be a strong resistence zone.
Stratergy for Monday,
1.if the global market is good, go long keeping SL of 5850 for 1st target of 5940, then 6000.
2. If the global market is week, go short keeping SL of 5865 for a target of 5750.
Thanks and Regards,
Subhag Ghosh
6000 Call has got max OI at 76 lakhs contacts, but 21 Lakhs contacts has been closed on friday,s session, i.e OI reduced by 25 %, which is paving the way for upward movement.
5700 Put has got max OI with 77 lakhs contacts, which suggests market has got good support at 5700.
The candlestick pattern is piercing line, which has bullish implication.
21 sma is comming around 5942 and 50 sma is comming around 6052.
38.2 % retracement of the fall from 6338 (5-Nov-10) to 5690 (26-Nov-10) is comming around 5940.
5950 will be a strong resistence zone.
Stratergy for Monday,
1.if the global market is good, go long keeping SL of 5850 for 1st target of 5940, then 6000.
2. If the global market is week, go short keeping SL of 5865 for a target of 5750.
Thanks and Regards,
Subhag Ghosh
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Market Analysis of 8-DEC-2010 and Stratergy for 9-Dec-2010
Market Analysis of 8-DEC-2010 and Stratergy for 9-Dec-2010
Nifty future trading at 5925 with -1.4 % change and OI is down by -0.36 %, there was profit booking, and at least no major shorting on Nifty.
CALL OI are increasing and price falling (shorting is being done on CALL), Max OI is at 6000 CE with 86 L contracts in open position, indicates market UPSIDE is cap somewhere around 6000, as of now.
PUT OI are decreaseing and price increasing (short covering ), MAX OI at 5800 PE with 66 L contact in open position,indicates downside support are getting weaker and downside risk are increasing.
26 Nov 2010 - 5690 (Nifty spot low)
6 Dec 2010 - 6069 (Nifty spot high)
38.2 % and 50% retracement has been hit today, 61.8 % retracement is comming around 5834.
If tomarrow global sentiment is positive, Nifty target will be 5956 ( 7 dec, low).
If tomarrow global sentiment is negative, Nifty may touch 5834, if the level is broken next logical target will be 5690, but if u draw trendline it is somewhere comming at 5730-5750 range.
Disclaimer: Personally I am holding long JP Associate, and the analysis is based on option data, which changes everyday and the outlook also changes.
Thanks and Regards,
Subhag Ghosh
Nifty future trading at 5925 with -1.4 % change and OI is down by -0.36 %, there was profit booking, and at least no major shorting on Nifty.
CALL OI are increasing and price falling (shorting is being done on CALL), Max OI is at 6000 CE with 86 L contracts in open position, indicates market UPSIDE is cap somewhere around 6000, as of now.
PUT OI are decreaseing and price increasing (short covering ), MAX OI at 5800 PE with 66 L contact in open position,indicates downside support are getting weaker and downside risk are increasing.
26 Nov 2010 - 5690 (Nifty spot low)
6 Dec 2010 - 6069 (Nifty spot high)
38.2 % and 50% retracement has been hit today, 61.8 % retracement is comming around 5834.
If tomarrow global sentiment is positive, Nifty target will be 5956 ( 7 dec, low).
If tomarrow global sentiment is negative, Nifty may touch 5834, if the level is broken next logical target will be 5690, but if u draw trendline it is somewhere comming at 5730-5750 range.
Disclaimer: Personally I am holding long JP Associate, and the analysis is based on option data, which changes everyday and the outlook also changes.
Thanks and Regards,
Subhag Ghosh
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