Market stratergy for 17 Jan 2010.

Nifty (5654) is clearly in downtrend, and has closed below 5690.Nifty has fallen by 542 points in last 10 days, and was unable to cross 38.2 % of retracement.
As I have already mentioned in by 13Jan post on niftyfutureandoption.blogspot.com/2011/01/market-analysis-and-trading-stratergy.html and nseguide.com, the market is week and you should short nifty keeping a sl of 5882 for a target of 5600, the market unfolded in the expected way. 
5600 call saw a huge writing with open interest raise by 457 % and price falling by 40 %.Max put build by is seen at 5600 with 88 L contacts in open interest.
200 sma is 5605, and market is expected a support from 5600.
Nifty is expected to bounce at least by 20% to 38.2% of the fall, i.e 5747 to 5846 in comming week.This time should be utilized to liquidate long position and create fresh short for a target of 5500-5350 in comming month.
I will personally short nifty on every rise, keeping a stoploss of 5882.

Stratergy only for monday is based on bounce back, as the market is clearly oversold and huge call writing has been seen, can expect a short covering.
1. Buy 5700 call for a target of 100+, SL 5595 nifty spot.
2. Buy Nifty future at current level, sell 5800 call and buy 5600 put. Book profit in the zone of 5750-5800.


Market Analysis and Trading Stratergy for 14-JAN-2010

Nifty (5751) is able to give close above crucial level of 5750. The short term trend is negative, the index is still trading below 21/50/100 (5977/5995/5947) days moving average. Nifty is expected to touch 200 sma i.e 5604.

Option data clearly indidates a range of 5600-6000 till expiry, call writing is being seen everywhere, even 5600 calls are getting writen off. 5600 Put accumulation is being seen, which makes a downside target of 5600.

On 12 Jan Nifty high 5874 was unable to cross 5882 i.e 38.2 % retracement of the current fall, this clearly indicates market is week.

Trading Stratergy
Sell on every rise till 5882 is crossed decisively.
I have got three trading stratergy based on your aptitude.
1. Buy 5800 put around 65-75, for a target of 105-110 or higher.
2. Sell 5800 call around 80-90, for a target of 50-60, SL 5882 nifty spot.
3. Sell 5700 call and put for 133 & 76, total preminum 209, total preminum earn 10,450 Rs. LBP 5491, UBP 5909, SL 5600 on lower side and 5882 on higher side, the VIX is at 23.15 %, which is going to cool down in coming days, target for 1 week 120.

Thanks and Regards
Subhag Ghosh